Double Chance Accumulators: When It Helps and When It Doesn't

Double chance lets you back two of the three football results in one bet. "1X" is home win or draw, "X2" is draw or away win, and "12" is either side winning, so only a draw loses. It is popular in accumulators because the legs win often, but the odds are short, and short odds do not make an acca safe.

This guide covers how the price is built, what happens when you stack double chance legs, and the situations where it is a sensible choice.

How double chance odds are built#

Take a match priced at home 2.10, draw 3.50, away 3.60. Convert to implied probabilities by dividing 1 by each price: 47.6%, 28.6% and 27.8%. They add to 104.0%, so the margin is 4.0%. Strip it out proportionally (divide each by 1.0397) and you get fair probabilities of 45.8%, 27.5% and 26.7%.

Now build the double chance markets by adding:

Bookmakers then add their own margin. If you simply add the raw implied probabilities, 1X comes to 47.6% + 28.6% = 76.2%, which is 1.31 in odds. A real double chance price will sit at roughly that level or lower, so the difference between 1.36 and 1.31 is the margin you pay. The method for removing it is in implied probability and the bookmaker margin.

Why people like double chance in accas#

• A higher strike rate per leg. A 73% leg beats a 46% leg.
• Draws stop being the enemy. The draw is the most awkward result in football to predict, and double chance neutralises it for one team.
• Short prices can still add up. Six legs at 1.30 gives 1.30 to the power of 6, which is 4.83.

The catch: stacking short prices#

Here is the maths on a six-leg double chance acca where each leg has a true probability of 74%, priced at 1.30 (an implied 76.9%).

So on a £10 stake you win £48.30 about one time in six, and you give back roughly £2.10 per bet in expectation. The legs look safe, yet the acca loses more than five times in six.

A different way to see it: if each leg fails 26% of the time, the chance that at least one of six fails is 1 minus 0.164, or 83.6%.

When double chance makes sense#

1. A strong favourite at a short straight-win price. If the home win is 1.25, the 1X may be 1.04, which barely pays. The straight result may be the better use of a leg because the double chance price adds almost nothing.
2. A near-even game where the draw is live. 1X on a closely matched home side can be sensible, because the bet wins on two of three outcomes and the price is not tiny.
3. An away side you rate but do not trust to win. X2 can be a sounder way to back them than the outright 3.60.
4. As a filler to reach a minimum odds threshold. Be careful here: a 1.10 filler adds margin and a small chance of losing for almost no extra payout.

Double chance versus draw no bet#

Draw no bet refunds your stake on a draw. It pays more than double chance when the team wins, but a draw gives you nothing back beyond your stake.

If the draw price is long, draw no bet gives you more value on a home win. If you think a draw is likely, double chance is the better cover.

A decision rule#

Ask two questions for each potential double chance leg:

1. What is the fair probability of the two outcomes combined, after removing margin?
2. Is the offered price at least as long as the fair price?

If the answer to the second is no, you are paying margin for a leg that has no edge. Our generator checks each market this way. It compares the de-vigged market probability and a goals model to the best available price, and flags where the gap is positive. See how the model works.

Using double chance in a balanced acca#

If you want double chance legs in the mix, pair them with a small number of straight legs, and keep the total at a number you can justify. How many legs should an acca have shows the cost of each extra leg. The ArtificialAcca generator lets you choose markets and a risk setting, and you can see how each daily acca settled on the results page.

Straight win legs versus double chance legs#

Use the evenly matched game from earlier: home 2.10, draw 3.50, away 3.60, with a fair home win of 45.8% and a fair 1X of 73.3%. Build a four-leg acca of identical games both ways, using the straight home price (2.10) and a typical 1X price of 1.31.

The expected return is almost identical. Margin is paid either way, and the double chance acca does not solve it. What changes is the shape of the bet: you win roughly one time in three or four, for a small payout, instead of one time in twenty-three, for a large one. Pick the shape that suits your goal and your bankroll, not the one that sounds safer.

Notice also that the 1X acca at 2.94 pays less than a single 3.00 bet would, while needing four matches to go your way. That is a reason to ask whether four short legs are better than two longer ones, which the leg-count article examines.

The Asian handicap link#

Double chance has relatives in handicap markets. A team at Asian handicap +0.5 wins the bet if it wins or draws, which is the same outcome as double chance 1X or X2, though the price can differ slightly by market. Asian handicap 0, also called draw no bet, refunds your stake on a draw.

This matters when you shop for prices. If the double chance price on a side looks thin, check whether the +0.5 handicap is offered at a better price for the same outcome. Margins differ across markets, and the best leg price is often not in the market you looked at first.

A word on the draw#

Double chance is a view on the draw as much as on a team. A 1X leg treats the draw as a winning result, so it is at its best when you think the home side is unlikely to lose but you are unsure it will win. If your real view is that the home side will win, the straight result is the more honest bet. If your real view is that the match is a toss-up, neither leg has much to offer. Being clear about which of these you believe stops you from reaching for double chance only because it feels comfortable.

18+ only. Double chance reduces the chance of a leg losing, it does not remove it, and an accumulator still loses if any leg does. Please gamble responsibly. Help and advice are available at BeGambleAware.org and on 0808 8020 133.