The FA Cup is a knockout competition, so acca selections behave differently from a league week: ties are one-offs, squads are rotated and upsets are more common. This page lists the next FA Cup fixtures that ArtificialAcca has prices for, the selection the model rates most likely in each, and a ready-made three-leg acca built from the strongest of them.
Draw or Crawley Town
Wimborne Town v Crawley Town
Model 82% · 1.17
Over 1.5 goals
Peterborough v Reading
Model 81% · 1.20
Stockport County to win
Cray Wanderers v Stockport County
Model 80% · 1.17
Combined odds 1.64 · Model probability 53%
Built from the most likely pick in each of the three strongest fixtures below. Odds are the best price found and can change.
Over 1.5 goals1.20 · model 81%
Bookmakers price this at 81%
Peterborough or Reading (no draw)1.33 · model 74%
Bookmakers price this at 74%
Stockport County to win1.17 · model 80%
Bookmakers price this at 80%
Over 2.5 goals1.33 · model 71%
Bookmakers price this at 71%
Draw or Crawley Town1.17 · model 82%
Bookmakers price this at 82%
Over 1.5 goals1.17 · model 79%
Bookmakers price this at 79%
Oldham or Sheffield Wednesday (no draw)1.30 · model 75%
Bookmakers price this at 75%
Both teams to score1.50 · model 63%
Bookmakers price this at 63%
Over 1.5 goals1.18 · model 79%
Bookmakers price this at 79%
Plymouth Parkway or Berkhamsted (no draw)1.29 · model 74%
Bookmakers price this at 74%
For each FA Cup match we collect prices across the 1X2, double chance, both teams to score and over/under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals markets, remove the bookmaker margin to get a fair market probability, and blend that with a goals model built from each side's scoring record. The result is a model probability for every selection, shown next to the best available decimal odds.
Picks on this page are ranked by model probability, within odds of 1.15 to 4.00 so that a leg is neither trivially short nor a long shot. The edge figure (model probability multiplied by odds, minus one) shows where the model and the market disagree; a high probability at short odds can still have no edge.
Cup ties are decided in a single match, so the stronger side has less room to recover from a poor day, and managers of bigger clubs often rotate. Check line-ups before locking in a favourite, and treat a short-priced home win in a knockout round with more caution than the same price in a league fixture.
Most football betting markets on a FA Cup tie settle on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, so extra time and penalties normally do not count. Read your bookmaker's rules for the specific market before you build the acca.
Keep it short. Combined probability is the product of each leg: five legs at 70% each land together about 17% of the time, and three legs at 70% about 34%. Every leg you add multiplies the odds but divides your chance of winning.
Use one selection per match, since two legs from the same game are correlated and the bookmaker's acca price already accounts for that. Mix markets, and use the results page to see how ArtificialAcca's own accas have actually performed.
More acca tips: BTTS acca · Over 2.5 goals acca · Over 1.5 goals acca · Under 2.5 goals acca · Double chance acca · Home win acca · all acca tips.
More leagues: all acca tips by league.
18+ only. ArtificialAcca shows probabilities, not guarantees: accumulators lose far more often than single bets, so never stake more than you can afford to lose. Free support is available at BeGambleAware.org.
